3-Line TL;DR
- Google has given no Gemini 4 date beyond "much earlier" than the end of 2026, and bettors put a public release by October 31 at 79%
- The leaked scores and the $2.25 / $11.25 price have no named source, so treat them as rumor until Google posts a model page
- Google is testing Gemini 4 inside Antigravity first, so there is no reason to pause a Claude Code or Codex setup that already works
"Much earlier than year-end" still leaves three months
- Google started the Gemini 4 pre-training run on July 22 and called it its "most ambitious" yet (Alphabet Q2 remarks)
- On September 24, DeepMind chief Koray Kavukcuoglu said the model is in post-training (9to5Google, from The Information)
- He wants an early version out "as soon as possible" and "much earlier" than the end of the year
- Counted from September 24, that still leaves about three months
- Post-training covers safety testing, guardrails and internal testing with Gemini 4 running Antigravity
- No tier name, benchmark, context size or price came with it
- Gemini 3.5 Pro was also teased in the summer and never shipped, per the same 9to5Google report
Bettors have already lost four deadlines
Source: Polymarket — Gemini 4.0 released by...?, prices checked September 28, 2026 08:15 UTC — chart by HSL
- The market pays out only on a public release, not a closed beta or private access
- The June 30, July 31, August 31 and September 15 deadlines all resolved "No"
- Anyone who bet on a release has lost four times in a row
- September 30 now trades at 2.25%, October 31 at 79% and November 30 at 94.5%
- These are bettors' prices rather than a Google date, but they are the only dated numbers available
- My guess is October or November, probably with a "preview" label
The leak used a name Google had already shipped
- The leak claims a model tested on Arena on September 17 was an early Gemini 4 Pro (TechBriefly, BigGo)
- It appeared as "gemini-3.8-flash"
- Google had released the real Gemini 3.8 Flash on September 2, 15 days earlier (Google)
- The rumored scores are 88% on DeepSWE v1.1, 95.3% on Terminal-bench 2.1 and 86.8% on OSWorld-2.0
- They come with one decimal place and no links
- Neither report names a leaker or shows a screenshot, and Google has confirmed nothing
- The 10M-token input limit and cross-session memory in the same reports are unconfirmed too
The rumored price sits between Flash and Opus
Sources: Google, Anthropic, OpenAI standard rates checked September 28, 2026; Gemini 4 price from TechBriefly, unconfirmed — chart by HSL
| Model | Input per 1M | Output per 1M | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | $0.75 | $3.75 | Official intro price to Dec 31, 2026 |
| Gemini 3.8 Flash | $1.50 | $7.50 | Official from Jan 1, 2027 |
| Gemini 4 Pro | $2.25 | $11.25 | Rumor |
| Claude Opus 5.5 | $4 | $20 | Official |
| GPT-6 Astra | $10 | $50 | Official, short context |
- If the rumor holds, Gemini 4 Pro would cost 44% less than Opus 5.5 and 77.5% less than Astra per token
- It would also cost 1.5 times Google's own Flash once the Flash discount ends
- Google's Flash launch post already says the model "might use more tokens" to maximize performance
- More tokens can cancel out a lower per-token price, so compare cost per finished task, as the Astra vs Opus 5.5 same-prompt test did
A better model won't fix Antigravity
- In my own use, Antigravity is far clumsier than Claude Code or Codex, though I have not measured it
- Google says Antigravity has more than 2.4 million weekly active users (Alphabet Q2 remarks)
- Since May, Gemini Flash and Pro draw from one shared usage limit, charged at API prices (Antigravity)
- A pricier flagship would likely drain that limit faster than Flash does
- When the new limits arrived, some users hit them within an hour (9to5Google)
- Google tripled the limits twice in one week, and users still said they were lower than before
- Google already runs Antigravity on Gemini 4 internally, so the model may reach that tool first
| Your setup | What I would do |
|---|---|
| Happy with Claude Code or Codex | Keep working, and test Gemini 4 through the API once Google posts a model page |
| Already paying for Google AI Pro or Ultra | Try it in Antigravity on day one, and watch how fast the shared limit drains |
| Choosing by price | Wait for the official price, then compare cost per finished task |
| Thinking of subscribing now to be ready | Wait, because no tier, price or limit is confirmed |
Community Reactions
- In r/GoogleGeminiAI, Nov4Saki called the leaked benchmark figures recycled speculation and did not take the Arena sighting as proof (Reddit)
- In an older Antigravity thread from before these leaks, sdexca said Claude Code gave them steadier tooling and better limits (Reddit)
- In the same thread, pjerky reported good results building web apps with Antigravity (Reddit)
Q&A (Field Notes)
- Q. Is Gemini 4 already on Arena?
- Unconfirmed, and the entry named in the leak carried the name of a model Google had already released
- Q. Will Gemini 4 be cheaper than Opus 5.5?
- Per token it would be 44% cheaper if the rumor holds, but the price is unsourced and cost per task is a separate question
- Q. What can I use from Google right now?
- Gemini 3.8 Flash costs $0.75 / $3.75 per 1M tokens until December 31, then $1.50 / $7.50
- Q. Should I switch to Antigravity to be ready for Gemini 4?
- Not before it launches, since the model, price and limits are all still unannounced